Risk Assessment

Underwater munitions present significant challenges to policymakers, industry and security authorities, with far-reaching implications for the environment, public health, the economy and national security. As these munitions degrade over time, they release hazardous substances, posing risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries and coastal populations. Unexploded ordnance (UXO) further exacerbates safety and economic risks, delaying offshore projects, restricting maritime activities and driving up operational costs. Additionally, the presence of munitions complicates defence and security operations, affecting naval exercises, surveillance and border security.

To address these growing risks, a structured and science-based risk assessment is essential. This process provides the foundation for identifying, evaluating and managing risks, ensuring that mitigation strategies are not only effective but also cost-efficient and aligned with regulatory and security priorities.

A Strategic Tool for Informed Decision-Making

Risk assessment begins with defining the problem, determining what needs to be protected and what level of risk is acceptable. This requires collaboration between policymakers, environmental agencies, industry leaders and defence authorities. Key questions to address include:

• What are the most urgent risks: environmental harm, threats to public safety, economic disruptions or national security concerns?
• How do these risks align with strategic goals, regulations and economic activities?
• What are the best approaches for risk management and remediation?

Once the problem is defined, risk assessment moves into a structured evaluation process that considers:

• Risk Likelihood & Impact: How probable is a hazardous event (e.g., leakage, detonation, economic disruption), and what are its consequences?
• Sector-Specific Risks: What impact could these munitions have on maritime industries, energy infrastructure, national security and environmental policies?
• Uncertainties & Decision Support: What are the knowledge gaps, and how can risk managers proceed with confidence despite these uncertainties?

Using a weight of evidence approach, risk assessment helps decision-makers evaluate scientific data, prioritise actions and develop effective, evidence-based strategies for risk management. This process ensures a balanced approach that considers environmental, economic and security factors.

Proactive Risk Management for Safety and Stability

Integrating risk assessment into policy and planning enables proactive management of underwater munitions. By addressing risks in a structured and informed way, decision-makers can safeguard the environment, protect public health and support the sustainable development of marine industries.

Environment